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As recently as the summer, respondents had forecast rate cuts in the beginning of next year. The change can also be seen in the outlook for the fed funds rate, the central bank's benchmark for short-term lending costs. It's now forecast on average to end 2024 at 4.6%, assuming about 75 basis points of rate cuts. In June, the year-end 2024 funds rate was forecast at 3.8%, which assumed 125 basis points of cuts. Some 60% of respondents see the Fed hitting its inflation target in 2025 or sometime after that, and 19% don't believe the Fed will ever get there.
Persons: Jerome, Powell, Peter Boockvar, Robert Brusca, Troy Ludtka Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal Reserve, Bleakley Financial, Fed, Nikko Securities
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'All-clear' signal from Fed hike cycle is years away, warns top investor Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group chief investment officer, joins 'Fast Money' to talk what could come out of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, where the U.S. economy stands, the real estate market and more.
Persons: Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar Organizations: Bleakley Financial Group
Architecture firms reported a sharp drop in business in September, indicating that the commercial real estate market could see even more pain in the next year. The index is a forward-looking indicator of demand for non-residential construction activity, both commercial and industrial buildings. Commercial real estate has been hit with a double whammy. Among real estate sectors, firms with a multi-family residential focus saw more of a decline. Multi-family construction boomed over the last few years, with a record number of units now flooding the market and putting pressure on rents.
Persons: Kermit Baker, bode, Peter Boockvar Organizations: AIA, Billings, Bleakley Financial Locations: billings
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's interview with Mariner Wealth's Jeff Krumpelman and Bleakley Financial's Peter BoockvarJeff Krumpelman, Mariner Wealth Advisors chief investment strategist, along with Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group chief investment officer, join 'The Exchange' to discuss bond market activity taking over the job of the Fed, the negative impact rising rates are having on equities, and fiscal debt and geopolitical tensions causing near term P/E contraction.
Persons: Mariner, Jeff Krumpelman, Bleakley, Peter Boockvar Jeff Krumpelman, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Mariner Wealth Advisors, Bleakley Financial Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBig cap tech is wildly overvalued considering the rise in rates, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarJeff Krumpelman, Mariner Wealth Advisors chief investment strategist, along with Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group chief investment officer, join 'The Exchange' to discuss bond market activity taking over the job of the Fed, the negative impact rising rates are having on equities, and fiscal debt and geopolitical tensions causing near term P/E contraction.
Persons: Bleakley's Peter Boockvar Jeff Krumpelman, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Mariner Wealth Advisors, Bleakley Financial Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHousing market's sensitivity to rates kept the Fed from hiking further, says Peter BoockvarGregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Advisory Group, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss when investors can expect a Fed pivot, economic data showing ongoing disinflation, and the housing markets' sensitivity to rate hikes.
Persons: Peter Boockvar Gregory Daco, Peter Boockvar, Steve Liesman Organizations: Bleakley Advisory
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Israel-Hamas conflict could extend high inflation in the U.S., says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarKaterina Simonetti, senior vice president and private wealth advisor at Morgan Stanley, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial chief investment officer, join 'The Exchange' to discuss volatility in markets over increased geopolitical risk, investors looking for stability in the bond market, and oil prices expected to rise over Iran's potential coordination with Hamas.
Persons: Bleakley's Peter Boockvar Katerina Simonetti, Morgan Stanley, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Bleakley Financial Locations: Israel, U.S
At the center of the storm is the 10-year Treasury yield , one of the most influential numbers in finance. The relentless rise in borrowing costs has blown past forecasters' predictions and has Wall Street casting about for explanations. Companies that can only issue debt in the high-yield market, which includes many retail employers, will confront sharply higher borrowing costs. Higher rates squeeze the housing industry and push commercial real estate closer to default. "So if banks haven't fixed their issues since then, the problem is only worse, because rates are only higher."
Persons: Jerome Powell, SAUL LOEB, Bob Michele, Ben Emons, Treasurys, Benjamin Dunn, Lindsay Rosner, Peter Boockvar, Rosner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Getty, ., Treasury, Fed, JPMorgan, NewEdge, Bloomberg, Alpha Theory Advisors, Goldman, Companies, Bleakley Financial, Valley Bank, First Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Goldman Sachs, First Republic
That might not be bad news for the stock market after all. Data compiled by Raymond James shows the S & P 500 has averaged a 3.2% gain during government shutdowns going back to 1995. The most recent one, which took place between late 2018 and early 2019 and lasted 22 trading days, saw the S & P 500 rally more than 10%. In fact, the broad market index has posted gains in every shutdown period tracked by Raymond James. Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau also said, "the economic hit is usually modest," adding that shutdowns "do not impact market functioning."
Persons: Raymond James, shutdowns, Peter Boockvar, Stephen Juneau, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bleakley Financial, Bank of America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Cape Cod Five's Rachael Aiken and Bleakley's Peter BoockvarRachael Aiken, senior investment officer at Cape Cod Five Wealth Management, Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial chief investment officer, and CNBC's Bob Pisani join 'Power Lunch' to discuss bonds and gold as alternatives to stocks.
Persons: Rachael Aiken, Bleakley's Peter Boockvar Rachael Aiken, Peter Boockvar, Bob Pisani Organizations: Cape, Five Wealth Management, Bleakley Financial
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGold has held up better than anticipated: Cape Cod Five's Rachael AikenRachael Aiken, senior investment officer at Cape Cod Five Wealth Management, Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial chief investment officer, and CNBC's Bob Pisani join 'Power Lunch' to discuss bonds and gold as alternatives to stocks.
Persons: Rachael Aiken Rachael Aiken, Peter Boockvar, Bob Pisani Organizations: Cape, Five Wealth Management, Bleakley Financial
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer excitement around iPhone upgrades is waning, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarBob Elliott, Unlimited Funds CIO and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Bleakley's Peter Boockvar Bob Elliott, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Bleakley Financial
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRisk to the economy is government crowding out private sector finance: Bleakley's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if the latest jobs report is about supply, what higher rates mean for interest payments, and Boockvar's thoughts on hedge fund positioning.
Persons: Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar Organizations: Bleakley Financial
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTransitory inflation is in goods, not services: Citi's Andrew HollenhorstPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, Dennis Lockhart, former Atlanta Fed president, and Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi chief U.S. economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss Fed policy aiding natural disinflation, where core goods inflation is headed, and Chair Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole remarks.
Persons: Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst Peter Boockvar, Dennis Lockhart, Andrew Hollenhorst, Jackson Organizations: Bleakley Financial, Atlanta Fed, Citi
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket rally was built on hopes the Fed is almost done tightening: Bleakley's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Advisors, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the day's market action, the Federal Reserve's next moves and more.
Persons: Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar Organizations: Email, Bleakley Advisors, Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Bankrate's Ted Rossman and Bleakley's Peter BoockvarTed Rossman, Bankrate senior industry analyst, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the increasing consumer credit debt and its economic risk.
Persons: Bankrate's Ted Rossman, Peter Boockvar Ted Rossman, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Bleakley Financial
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCredit delinquencies have returned to pre-pandemic levels, says Bankrate's Ted RossmanTed Rossman, Bankrate senior industry analyst, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the increasing consumer credit debt and its economic risk.
Persons: Ted Rossman Ted Rossman, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Bleakley Financial
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe only consistency we are seeing this year is resilience in the economy, says BondBloxx's GallegosJoanna Gallegos, BondBloxx Investment Management co-founder, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, join 'Last Call' to talk moves in the bond market.
Persons: BondBloxx's Gallegos Joanna Gallegos, Peter Boockvar Organizations: BondBloxx Investment Management, Bleakley Financial
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI'm more worried about prolonged anemic growth than hard of soft landing: Bleakley’s Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, and Allen Sinai, Decision Economics president and former Lehman Brothers chief economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, whether a soft landing can be achieved, and more.
Persons: Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar, Allen Sinai Organizations: Bleakley Financial, Lehman Brothers
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBig Tech and homebuilder trades getting earnings ‘reality check,’ says investor Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group, Chief Investment Officer, joins 'Fast Money' to talk earnings season, the state of A.I. trades, the strength of the market rally and more.
Persons: , Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar Organizations: Tech, Bleakley Financial Group, Chief Locations: A.I
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed needs to be stubborn with keeping rates higher for longer, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarSandy Villere, Villere and Co. partner, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, join 'The Exchange' to talk the Federal Reserve, the latest CPI report and more.
Persons: Bleakley's Peter Boockvar Sandy Villere, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Bleakley Financial, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestor confidence dissipating ahead of 'reality check' earnings season, says Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO and CNBC's Dominic Chu, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the bond market's recent performance, if investors are confident in the situation with the banks, and much more.
Persons: Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar, CNBC's Dominic Chu Organizations: Bleakley Financial
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigher rates for longer will create a 'death by one thousand cuts economy': Bleakley’s BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, joins 'Fast Money' to talk revelations from the Fed minutes, what is ahead for the central bank, and more.
Persons: Bleakley’s, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Bleakley Financial
The number of homes for sale this month was actually 7% higher than June of last year, according to Realtor.com. An even tighter housing market ahead means home prices are unlikely to cool. They began to fall because mortgage rates had doubled in a matter of months. "Despite sluggish pending contract signings, the housing market is resilient with approximately three offers for each listing," NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said in a release. Higher mortgage rates have been less of a factor, as builders, some of whom have their own mortgage arms, have been buying down rates for buyers.
Persons: Craig Lazzara, DJI, Lawrence Yun, hadn't, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Mortgage News Daily, National Association of Realtors, Census, Builders, Bleakley Financial
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with PIMCO's Libby Cantrill and Bleakley Financial's Peter BoockvarCNBC's Emily Wilkins, PIMCO's Libby Cantrill, and Bleakley Financial's Peter Boockvar join 'The Exchange' to discuss markets joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss Biden's policy agenda, the President's plans for fiscal stimulus, and efforts to raise Americans awareness about policy improvements.
Persons: PIMCO's Libby Cantrill, Bleakley, Peter Boockvar, Emily Wilkins
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